Overcome difficulties
Construction steel prices at the end of 2023 fluctuated between 13,8 – 15,3 million VND/ton. By the beginning of 2024, steel prices had increased by 150.000 – 370.000 VND/ton, to 14 – 14,5 million VND/ton, peaking in March with prices of CB3 coil steel and D240 CB10 ribbed bars at 300 million VND/ton and 15,6 million VND/ton, respectively.
After that, prices continuously decreased, reaching their lowest point in September, when CB9 coil steel was at VND240 million/ton and D13,43 CB10 rebar steel was priced at VND300 million/ton.
Since mid-September, steel brands have adjusted steel prices many times. By the end of December, domestic construction steel prices were being sold at around 9 – 12 million VND per ton. This price level is returning to the same level as in late July and early August, before a sharp decline that has continued until now.
According to statistics from the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), steel exports recorded good growth. Domestic steel prices also recovered from a three-year low and continued to increase during this period.
Vietnam’s finished steel sales reached 26,776 million tons, up 13% year-on-year. Growth was recorded in most products, with cold-rolled coil (CRC) increasing the most at 40,8%; followed by galvanized and color-coated steel at 32,8%, construction steel at 11,9% and steel pipes at 4,8%, while hot-rolled coil (HRC) decreased by 2,2% year-on-year in 2023.
These figures show that, from a positive perspective, our country’s steel industry has now passed the most difficult period and is gradually restoring stability. Many businesses have recorded improvements in consumption demand, revenue and profit margins.
Positive business
Vietnam Steel Corporation (VNSteel) in 2024 recorded a total consolidated revenue of VND 33.000 billion, an increase of nearly 7% compared to 2023; consolidated pre-tax profit reached VND 230 billion. The entire system supplied the market with an estimated 3,56 million tons of finished steel, an increase of 21,3% over the same period; of which the output of long rolls is estimated at 2,36 million tons (an increase of 10,7%) compared to 2023.
Cold-rolled steel and galvanized steel output are estimated at 750.000 tons and 445.000 tons, respectively, up 47,6% and 52,9% year-on-year. In Vietnam, the steel industry has shown signs of recovery compared to the previous year, as shown by the total steel consumption growth of 10,4% year-on-year. However, this recovery has not been uniform across product groups and regions.
Entering 2025, the World Steel Association (WSA) has given an optimistic but cautious forecast for the recovery of global steel demand in 2025, however, the steel market in the ASEAN region in general and Vietnam in particular will not only face difficulties from the slowing growth in demand for finished steel products but also continue to be under pressure from Chinese steel exports. VNSteel believes that the domestic steel market in 2025 will be a complex picture, with both opportunities and challenges intertwined.
Meanwhile, Thong Nhat Sheet Steel Joint Stock Company recorded net revenue of VND238 billion, down 46% compared to the same period last year. Cost of goods sold decreased by nearly 50%, leading to gross profit increasing nearly 3,6 times, to VND14,5 billion.
Although it cannot be confirmed that the steel industry has completely recovered due to the impact of global economic fluctuations, businesses assess that the steel market in 2024 has overcome the most difficult period and is gradually stabilizing again.
Dragon Viet Securities (VDSC) 2024 marks a recovery in the output of Vietnam’s construction steel market, when consumption output recorded a growth rate of 15,8% year-on-year. Flat steel products for construction activities (galvanized steel, steel pipes) maintained output growth, in addition to domestic demand, also recorded growth from foreign markets (ASEAN, EU, US).
Hot rolled coil (HRC) output is expected to be similar to 2023 due to trade defense activities in the EU market in the second half of 2024, affecting export volume.
In terms of construction steel market share, Hoa Phat Group increased its market share from 38%, compared to 35% in 2023 thanks to increased output in infrastructure projects, while boosting exports to other markets. The market share of galvanized steel tends to remain stable, with the companies with the largest market shares including Hoa Sen Group, Nam Kim Steel and Ton Dong A.
VDSC expects domestic steel output to maintain growth momentum in 2025, thanks to the continued recovery of the real estate market, boosting demand for civil construction and promoting public investment projects (when some important projects need to be completed in the 2025-2026 period).
VDSC believes that demand in export markets will continue to recover in 2025, but with investigations into steel products from Vietnam, export output is unlikely to remain as high as in 2024. In the baseline scenario, galvanized steel consumption is expected to reach 5,2 million tons (equivalent to 2024, with export output expected to decrease by 5% year-on-year), of which the export proportion will reach 52% (compared to 56% in 2024).
vietnam.vn
